General Motors Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $50.80median of 6 methods · middle span $45-$60based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $79.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 36% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $71.7B Shares Outstanding 902M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary GM's first-half 2026 operating performance supports a constructive but valuation-unanchored Hold. First-half EBIT-adjusted increased 25.6% to $8.196 billion, adjusted automotive free cash flow increased 73.2% to $6.302 billion, and management raised full-year EBIT-adjusted guidance to $14-$16 billion. North American margin recovery and U.S. sales leadership are positives. Offsetting factors include a 4.2% year-over-year decline in second-quarter U.S. deliveries, lower U.S. market share, elevated fleet mix and substantial EV strategic-realignment charges. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$61.00 Mean target$100.04 High · most bullish analyst$132.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $61.0024% North American margin falls below 8%, full-year EBIT-adjusted falls below $14 billion, or adjusted automotive free cash flow falls below $9.5 billion. Continued U.S. share erosion, weaker truck and SUV demand, higher fleet reliance or additional EV realignment costs would undermine the earnings-recovery thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $100.0456% Matches the consensus meanGM delivers within its updated 2026 guidance, with North American margin near the 8%-10% objective and continued positive cash generation. U.S. share stabilizes around current levels while EV restructuring and softer EV demand limit upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $132.0020% GM reaches the upper half of its $14-$16 billion EBIT-adjusted and $9.5-$11.5 billion adjusted automotive free-cash-flow guidance ranges. North American margin remains within or above the stated 8%-10% range, truck and SUV demand preserves U.S. leadership, and EV-loss reduction improves earnings quality without further material strategic-realignment charges. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |