General Mills Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

General Mills Inc

GISNYSE

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryPackaged Foods

Beta (adjusted)0.32

Intrinsic Value $56.87median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 May 2026

Market Price $31.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 80% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+80%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $16.9B

Enterprise Value $29.9B

Shares Outstanding 537.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date23 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

General Mills enters fiscal 2027 with management targeting improved organic-sales performance and substantial efficiency gains, but the organic-sales outlook still ranges from contraction to only modest growth. The investment case therefore depends on brand innovation and cost savings stabilizing earnings despite a difficult consumer environment. A Hold stance is appropriate pending evidence of sustained volume-led growth and delivery against the fiscal 2027 savings target.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$31.00

Mean target$37.56

High · most bullish analyst$47.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$31.0023%

Weak consumer sentiment, volatile purchasing patterns, or inadequate returns from brand investment push organic sales below guidance, while cost savings prove insufficient to protect earnings.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$37.5658%

Matches the consensus mean

Organic sales remain within management's fiscal 2027 range, with efficiency gains partly offsetting subdued category demand and continued growth investment. This is the modal scenario.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$47.0019%

Innovation, improved brand execution, and digital capabilities lift organic sales toward the upper end of management's fiscal 2027 range while the cost-savings program funds reinvestment and supports profit recovery.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The company combines established brands with consumer-focused innovation, scaled digital capabilities, portfolio reshaping, and a large multiyear efficiency program intended to fund growth and improve agility.

Key Investment Risks

Weak consumer sentiment, category volatility, competitive pricing and promotion, input-cost pressure, retailer inventory changes, and execution risk in restructuring or cost-saving initiatives could prevent the expected organic-sales and earnings recovery.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.