Generac Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Generac Holdings Inc

GNRCNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery

Beta (adjusted)1.61

Intrinsic Value $185.34median of 6 methods · middle span $155-$201based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $207.91Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.3B

Enterprise Value $13.2B

Shares Outstanding 59.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Jun 2013

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Generac's C&I franchise is accelerating as data-center demand expands, with second-quarter 2026 C&I sales up 29% and data-center backlog reaching approximately $1.6 billion. Management maintained mid-to-high-teens consolidated growth guidance and raised full-year adjusted EBITDA-margin guidance to 20.0%-21.0%. The quality of the margin improvement is less clear because the second-quarter 24.8% margin included approximately $71 million of tariff refunds, while residential external sales declined 2%. The resulting operating outlook is constructive but balanced by execution, customer-contract, residential-demand and margin-normalization risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$214.00

Mean target$283.88

High · most bullish analyst$340.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$214.0019%

Data-center orders slow, customer cancellation or delivery risks emerge, or capacity expansion fails to translate into profitable revenue. Residential demand remains weak because outage activity and durable-goods spending disappoint, while input costs, product mix and the absence of recurring tariff refunds pull full-year adjusted EBITDA margin below 20.0%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$283.8856%

Matches the consensus mean

Generac broadly delivers its 2026 outlook: consolidated sales grow in the mid-to-high teens, C&I growth remains in the low-30% range, residential growth reaches the high single digits, and adjusted EBITDA margin remains within 20.0%-21.0%. Data-center backlog supports 2027 visibility, but investors appropriately distinguish recurring operating leverage from the temporary tariff-refund benefit.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$340.0025%

Data-center orders continue to replenish as the approximately $1.6 billion backlog converts, the two hyperscale relationships broaden, C&I growth exceeds management's low-30% full-year expectation, and capacity investments support sustained operating leverage. Residential demand also recovers toward or above the high-single-digit outlook while full-year adjusted EBITDA margin reaches or exceeds the top of the 20.0%-21.0% range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Data-center backlog reached approximately $1.6 billion after about $1 billion of additional orders since the prior update, while one hyperscale agreement committed nearly $700 million of 2027 volume.
Second-quarter 2026 consolidated net sales increased 11%, C&I external sales increased 29%, and quarterly free cash flow rose to $62.9 million from $14.5 million.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin benefited by approximately six percentage points from tariff refunds, making the quarter's 24.8% margin an imperfect indicator of recurring profitability.
Residential external net sales declined approximately 2% in the second quarter, and product demand remains exposed to outage frequency, consumer durable-goods spending and inventory forecasting.
Data-center growth introduces customer concentration, cancellation, delivery, capacity-execution and performance-obligation risks.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.