GE Vernova Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

GE Vernova Inc

GEVNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryHeavy Electrical Equipment

Beta (adjusted)0.98

Intrinsic Value $1,797.67median of 6 methods · middle span $586-$3,992based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $987.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 82% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+82%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $263B

Enterprise Value $252.7B

Shares Outstanding 269M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

GE Vernova's operating momentum is strong: second-quarter backlog reached $176 billion, gas equipment backlog and slot reservations reached 116 GW, and management raised full-year revenue and free-cash-flow guidance. The longer-term outlook also calls for approximately $200 billion of backlog, $52 billion of revenue, and a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets33 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$940.00

Mean target$1,239.46

High · most bullish analyst$1,450.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$940.0020%

Revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin, or free cash flow falls below the lower end of 2026 guidance as manufacturing and supply-chain constraints impede the gas-turbine ramp, Wind losses persist, or Prolec GE integration underperforms. A failure to reach 125 GW of gas equipment under contract would weaken evidence for the expected long-cycle demand profile.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,239.4650%

Matches the consensus mean

GE Vernova delivers within its current 2026 ranges of $45.5-$46.5 billion of revenue, 12%-14% adjusted EBITDA margin, and $11.5-$12.5 billion of free cash flow while gas equipment under contract reaches at least 125 GW. Backlog and improved equipment pricing support continued progress toward the 2028 outlook.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,450.0030%

Demand and execution exceed the current plan: 2026 revenue surpasses $46.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin exceeds 14%, free cash flow exceeds $12.5 billion, and gas equipment under contract reaches at least 125 GW. Continued Power and Electrification order strength, data-center demand, and successful capacity expansion accelerate progress toward the 2028 backlog and margin objectives.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter orders were $24.2 billion, backlog increased $13 billion sequentially to $176 billion, and revenue grew 22% to $11.1 billion.
Gas equipment backlog and slot reservations reached 116 GW, with at least 125 GW expected by year-end 2026; data-center orders exceeded $5 billion in the first half.
The 2028 outlook targets approximately $200 billion of backlog, $52 billion of revenue, a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, and at least $22 billion of cumulative 2025-2028 free cash flow.

Key Investment Risks

Wind remained the weakest segment in the multi-year outlook, with 2026 organic revenue expected to decline by low double digits and segment EBITDA losses expected to remain similar to the prior year.
The gas-turbine growth thesis requires a substantial manufacturing ramp to 20 GW of annual output in the third quarter of 2026, 24 GW in 2028, and 30 GW in 2030.
The $5.275 billion acquisition of the remaining Prolec GE stake, financed with an equal mix of cash and debt, introduces integration and execution risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.