GCM Grosvenor Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

GCM Grosvenor Inc

GCMGNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management

Beta (adjusted)0.89

Intrinsic Value $46.09median of 6 methods · middle span $38-$114based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $13.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 252% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+252%)

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Market Cap $799.5M

Enterprise Value $985.9M

Shares Outstanding 60.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

GCM Grosvenor is undergoing a highly profitable strategic transformation, shifting its asset mix toward higher-margin private markets and direct-oriented strategies. While near-term quarterly earnings can experience volatility due to catch-up fees and fundraising timing, the underlying business exhibits strong structural momentum. Total AUM has reached $91.5 billion, and fee-paying AUM stands at $73.5 billion. Operating leverage is expanding, with the LTM FRE margin widening to 44% from 31% in 2020. Furthermore, the firm's share of unrealized carried interest has grown to $510 million, representing substantial embedded future earnings. Backed by a robust 4.5% dividend yield and a $255 million share repurchase authorization, GCM Grosvenor offers an attractive combination of defensive fee-based income and significant upside from private markets expansion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$13.00

Mean target$15.50

High · most bullish analyst$17.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$13.0015%

A prolonged downturn in capital markets slows private equity realizations and delays fundraising cycles, particularly in the retail wealth channel. Increased competition in the infrastructure and real assets space compresses management fee rates, while rising operating costs drag the FRE margin back down toward 40%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$15.5060%

Matches the consensus mean

Steady organic growth continues with total AUM expanding at an 8-10% CAGR, supported by institutional re-ups and moderate retail channel inflows. The FRE margin stabilizes around 44-45%, and the firm continues to execute its $255 million share buyback program while maintaining its $0.12 quarterly dividend. Valuation multiples align with peers as the market recognizes the stability of its fee-paying asset base.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$17.0025%

Accelerated fundraising in the high-net-worth individual wealth channel and rapid deployment of infrastructure and private equity mandates drive fee-paying AUM past $85 billion. Operating leverage continues to expand, pushing the FRE margin toward 48%. Realization of the $510 million in unrealized carried interest occurs faster than expected due to a supportive IPO and M&A environment, leading to substantial earnings beats and multiple expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong secular tailwinds in private markets, particularly in infrastructure and energy transition strategies.
Expanding operating leverage with LTM FRE margins widening from 31% in 2020 to 44% in Q1 2026.
Substantial embedded value with the firm's share of unrealized carried interest growing to $510 million.
High-quality, recurring fee-based revenue model with 11% YoY growth in fee-paying AUM.
Attractive shareholder capital return profile, including a stable dividend yield of approximately 4.5% and active share repurchases.

Key Investment Risks

Susceptibility of fundraising and asset realizations to macroeconomic headwinds and high interest rates.
Intense competition in the alternative asset management space, potentially leading to fee compression.
Lumpy and unpredictable timing of performance fees and carried interest realizations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained decline in fee-paying AUM for two consecutive quarters.
FRE margin dropping below 40%, indicating a failure to maintain operating leverage.
A significant reduction or suspension of the quarterly dividend.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.