Gates Industrial Corp Plc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)1.18 Intrinsic Value $26.79median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$34based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $26.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.7B Enterprise Value $8.1B Shares Outstanding 255.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Gates Industrial Corp plc (GTES) is well-positioned to capitalize on secular growth drivers in personal mobility and data center cooling markets, alongside a cyclical recovery in industrial OEM demand. Despite near-term headwinds from its European ERP transition, the company's strong balance sheet, robust cash generation, and strategic acquisition of Timken's belts business support a positive outlook for 2026 and beyond. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$33.45 High · most bullish analyst$39.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $30.00 Persistent operational friction from the European ERP rollout and integration delays with the Timken belts business, coupled with a prolonged downturn in commercial on-highway and industrial off-highway demand, pressures margins and limits core sales growth below guided ranges. Base CaseCentral scenario $33.45 Matches the consensus meanGates successfully navigates its European ERP transition, clearing the Q1 backlog in the second half of 2026. Core sales grow within the guided range of 1% to 4%, and adjusted EBITDA margins remain stable to slightly up, supported by stable automotive OEM demand and a gradual recovery in industrial OEM orders. Bull CaseUpside scenario $39.00 Accelerated recovery in industrial off-highway and diversified industrial end markets, combined with rapid scaling of the high-margin data center business (projected to reach $100-$200 million by 2028) and seamless integration of the Timken belts acquisition, drives significant margin expansion and market share gains. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |