Garrett Motion Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value $46.81median of 5 methods · middle span $11-$70based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $26.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 78% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+78%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.9B Enterprise Value $6.2B Shares Outstanding 189.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) represents a compelling buy opportunity as a highly profitable, cash-generative automotive technology leader trading at an attractive valuation. Despite broader industry headwinds and the long-term transition toward electrification, Garrett continues to capture market share in gasoline turbochargers and expand its presence in commercial vehicle, off-highway, and industrial markets. The company's robust cash generation supports aggressive share repurchases, debt reduction, and dividend payments, while its expanding portfolio of zero-emission technologies (such as fuel cell compressors and e-powertrains) provides a viable long-term growth runway. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$34.00 Mean target$37.17 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A sharper-than-expected global macroeconomic slowdown or rapid acceleration in pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption severely dampens turbocharger demand. Pricing pressure from major OEMs and failure to offset labor inflation compress operating margins. High debt levels and rising interest rates restrict free cash flow allocation, limiting share repurchases and dividend growth. Base CaseCentral scenario Garrett successfully executes its 2026 strategic plan, achieving net sales near the midpoint of its raised guidance ($3.75 billion) and maintaining strong Adjusted EBIT margins around 15%. The company continues to benefit from hybrid vehicle adoption, which requires advanced turbocharging systems, offsetting flat-to-declining pure internal combustion engine volumes. Share repurchases continue to reduce outstanding share count, driving double-digit EPS growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |