Garmin Ltd Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryConsumer Electronics Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $213.58median of 6 methods · middle span $193-$341based on filings through 28 Mar 2026 Market Price $282.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $54.5B Shares Outstanding 193.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Garmin entered the second half of 2026 with record second-quarter revenue and operating income, 13% first-half revenue growth, 29% first-half pro forma EPS growth, and raised full-year guidance. Fitness, aviation and marine growth and a large cash-and-securities position support continued product investment and shareholder returns. However, Outdoor revenue declined, part of the quarterly margin benefit came from tariff refunds, and the issuer-hosted stock quote near $285 already reflected substantial execution success. The resulting stance is Hold pending either a more attractive entry point or evidence that elevated growth and margins are durable. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$220.00 Mean target$290.29 High · most bullish analyst$370.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $220.0020% Wearables demand slows, Outdoor weakness deepens, tariff benefits reverse, and inventory growth leads to discounting or an unfavorable product mix. Revenue or EPS guidance is reduced, compressing both earnings expectations and the valuation investors assign to the shares. Base CaseCentral scenario $290.2955% Matches the consensus meanGarmin broadly delivers its raised FY2026 guidance while Fitness, aviation and marine growth offsets continued softness in Outdoor. Margins normalize below the unusually strong second-quarter level but remain consistent with management's full-year outlook. Bull CaseUpside scenario $370.0025% Fitness demand remains strong, new wearables and acquired training platforms broaden Garmin's addressable market, aviation and marine sustain growth, and favorable mix preserves margins near recent levels. Under this outcome, continued earnings outperformance supports a higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |