Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Specialty Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value $42.16median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $37.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.3B Enterprise Value $19B Shares Outstanding 288.2M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary GLPI combines contractual triple-net rental income with a growing development and sale-leaseback pipeline. Record second-quarter AFFO, higher guidance, a larger dividend, and leverage below management's target range support the income and growth case. The offset is meaningful execution and funding exposure across large casino developments, alongside material concentration in PENN and Bally's properties. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$53.52 High · most bullish analyst$63.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $45.0020% Construction delays, funding overruns, weaker tenant liquidity, or deteriorating lease coverage reduce expected project accretion and pressure AFFO guidance. Higher financing costs or leverage above management's target range would further weaken the income-and-growth proposition. Base CaseCentral scenario $53.5258% Matches the consensus meanGLPI delivers within its $4.10-$4.12 full-year 2026 AFFO-per-share guidance, completes planned funding broadly within the disclosed $750-$800 million development-spend range, and maintains leverage around its stated target range. Dividend income remains attractive, but concentration and construction risks constrain conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $63.0022% Development funding converts into rent on schedule, regional gaming conditions remain healthy, and GLPI sustains leverage near the low end of its target range. Management expects announced funding activity to support AFFO-per-share growth through 2027 and 2028. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |