Galaxy Digital Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCapital Markets Beta (adjusted)2.78 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $23.02Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.6B Shares Outstanding 589.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Galaxy has established operating proof for its data-center strategy by completing Helios Phase I on schedule and placing all 133 MW of critical IT load in service. Management expects approximately $80 million of Phase I leasing revenue in Q3 2026 at a project-level adjusted EBITDA margin above 90%, while 526 MW is contracted across Phases I-III. Institutional digital-asset traction also continues through relationships with BNY and Morgan Stanley Investment Management. These merits are balanced by continuing consolidated losses, sensitivity to digital-asset prices, substantial construction and financing commitments, and material dependence on successful execution of the CoreWeave-backed Helios expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.50 Mean target$39.78 High · most bullish analyst$57.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.5023% Phase I underperforms its stated revenue or margin expectations, Phase II delivery is delayed, leasing of additional power capacity progresses slowly, or weaker digital-asset markets create further trading, asset-value, and treasury losses while construction financing remains substantial. Base CaseCentral scenario $39.7856% Matches the consensus meanPhase I reaches approximately $80 million of quarterly leasing revenue, Phase II delivers its first data hall during Q2 2027, and the digital-assets businesses remain operationally resilient but market-sensitive. Consolidated profitability improves gradually rather than immediately. Bull CaseUpside scenario $57.0021% Helios Phase I achieves or exceeds the stated Q3 revenue and margin expectations; Phase II remains on schedule; additional approved Helios capacity secures leases; and institutional adoption expands Galaxy's staking, lending, trading, and tokenization activity. This would accelerate the shift toward contracted infrastructure earnings. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |