Gaia Inc Dossier
|
SectorCommunication Services IndustryMovies & Entertainment Beta (adjusted)0.98 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $1.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $35.3M Enterprise Value $35.6M Shares Outstanding 25.1M diluted Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Dec 2010 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Gaia, Inc. is executing a critical strategic pivot away from lower-value third-party distribution channels to focus entirely on direct-to-consumer membership economics. While this transition is expected to moderate near-term revenue growth, it is designed to significantly improve customer lifetime value, reduce churn, and expand ARPU. The company operates with exceptionally high gross margins (86%-87%) and has achieved its ninth consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow. However, persistent net losses and execution risks associated with the direct channel transition warrant a cautious Hold stance until sustained operating leverage and a clear path to GAAP profitability are demonstrated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.50 Mean target$4.38 High · most bullish analyst$6.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The deprioritization of third-party channels leads to a sharper-than-expected contraction in subscriber additions. Marketing costs to acquire direct members remain elevated, preventing the company from achieving its break-even target by Q4 2026 and delaying profitability beyond 2027. Base CaseCentral scenario Gaia successfully executes its direct channel transition, achieving a 20% reduction in churn and a 20%-25% increase in ARPU by Q4 2026. Free cash flow remains positive, and the company reaches its target of a break-even P&L by Q4 2026, paving the way for full-year profitability in 2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario The strategic pivot to direct-member economics successfully drives a 20-25% increase in ARPU and a 20% reduction in churn, leading to full-year net profitability in 2027 and accelerated free cash flow generation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |