G-III Apparel Group Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

G-III Apparel Group Ltd

GIIINASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryApparel Manufacturing

Beta (adjusted)1.19

Intrinsic Value $25.21median of 5 methods · middle span $21-$26based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $27.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $1.2B

Enterprise Value $660.8M

Shares Outstanding 44.1M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Last ex-dividend22 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

G-III Apparel Group is navigating a critical structural transition as its high-volume licensing agreements with PVH Corp. (Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger) expire, creating a near-term revenue headwind of approximately $470 million in fiscal 2027. To counter this, the company is pivoting toward its higher-margin owned brands (Donna Karan, DKNY, Karl Lagerfeld) and has announced a strategic joint venture with WHP Global to acquire the Marc Jacobs brand. While Q1 fiscal 2027 results beat expectations due to a substantial one-time tariff refund, underlying non-GAAP profitability remains pressured. The company's strong net cash position provides financial flexibility, but execution risks surrounding the brand transition and the Marc Jacobs integration justify a cautious Hold stance until long-term organic growth trends stabilize.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$38.00

Mean target$39.33

High · most bullish analyst$40.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$38.00

The loss of PVH licenses creates a larger-than-expected revenue vacuum that owned brands fail to fill. Consumer spending in the US and Europe softens further, leading to promotional markdowns and inventory write-downs. The Marc Jacobs integration proves highly dilutive in its first year, and the company's fixed cost base pressures operating margins, causing non-GAAP EPS to fall below $2.00.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$39.33

Matches the consensus mean

G-III successfully manages the PVH license phase-out, with fiscal 2027 net sales stabilizing around $2.71 billion. Owned brands continue to grow at mid-to-high single digits, partially offsetting the lost licensed revenue. Non-GAAP diluted EPS lands within the guided range of $2.15 to $2.25, supported by disciplined inventory management and steady gross margins. The Marc Jacobs transaction closes in Q3 FY2027 with manageable near-term dilution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$40.00

The transition to owned brands accelerates faster than expected, driving significant gross margin expansion. Donna Karan and DKNY sustain double-digit growth, while the Marc Jacobs acquisition is integrated seamlessly, achieving rapid wholesale expansion and lifestyle category extensions. Cost-saving initiatives exceed the $25 million run-rate target, leading to substantial operating leverage and EPS outperformance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong balance sheet with over $394 million in cash and minimal debt, providing excellent liquidity and capital allocation flexibility.
Pivoting to a higher-margin owned brand model (DKNY, Donna Karan, Karl Lagerfeld) which historically yields superior gross margins compared to licensed operations.
Strategic acquisition of the Marc Jacobs brand in partnership with WHP Global, offering a long-term path to $1 billion in brand revenue.

Key Investment Risks

Significant near-term revenue contraction from the expiration of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger licenses, representing a $470 million headwind in FY2027.
Execution and integration risks associated with the Marc Jacobs acquisition, which is expected to be dilutive in the first year.
Macroeconomic headwinds, including cautious consumer spending trends in Europe and potential retail channel volatility.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sharp decline in the growth rate of key owned brands (Donna Karan and DKNY) below mid-single digits.
Significant integration delays or higher-than-expected dilution from the Marc Jacobs transaction.
Operating margins falling below 4.5% due to fixed-cost deleverage from lower sales volumes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.