Futu Holdings Ltd ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Futu Holdings Ltd ADR

FUTUNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryCapital Markets

Beta (adjusted)0.64

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $106.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $14.9B

Enterprise Value $13.6B

Shares Outstanding 140.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Apr 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Futu entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: 3.84 million funded accounts, HK$1.40 trillion of client assets and HK$6.42 trillion of quarterly trading volume. Its presence across eight major markets, expansion into additional asset classes and growth in wealth management broaden the operating platform. The counterweight is substantial sensitivity to market activity and the execution and regulatory complexity created by rapid cross-border expansion, crypto, prediction markets and AI-assisted execution.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$111.87

Mean target$155.88

High · most bullish analyst$236.70

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$111.8718%

A reversal in trading activity or client-asset growth, combined with regulatory or execution setbacks in newer markets and products, would weaken the operating thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$155.8858%

Matches the consensus mean

Operating growth moderates from the unusually strong second-quarter pace but remains positive as Futu balances established Hong Kong operations with expansion across overseas markets and adjacent products.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$236.7024%

Sustained funded-account and client-asset growth, continued double-digit activity gains across international markets and deeper adoption of wealth management and additional asset classes would support a stronger and more diversified platform.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Large and expanding customer platform, with 3.84 million funded accounts and 6.64 million brokerage accounts at June 30, 2026.
Substantial client-asset and engagement scale, including approximately HK$1.40 trillion of client assets and HK$6.42 trillion of second-quarter trading volume.
Broader growth engines from operations across eight major markets, wealth-management client assets above HK$180.2 billion and expansion into additional regulated asset classes.

Key Investment Risks

Trading activity is cyclical: the exceptionally strong second-quarter volume establishes a demanding comparison and could reverse with weaker market participation.
Operating across multiple jurisdictions and adding crypto, prediction markets and other regulated products increases licensing, compliance and execution complexity.
AI-assisted research, order placement and automated strategy deployment may create technology, model-governance and conduct risks if controls do not keep pace with product adoption.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.