FTAI Aviation Ltd Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)1.37 Intrinsic Value $201.94median of 5 methods · middle span $189-$416based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $167.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $17.2B Enterprise Value $20.3B Shares Outstanding 104.7M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary FTAI's Aerospace Products platform remains the principal source of momentum: Q2 2026 revenue reached USD 875.0 million and adjusted EBITDA reached USD 249.7 million, increasing 78% and 51% year over year. Management reaffirmed USD 1.05 billion of FY2026 Aerospace Products adjusted EBITDA and introduced USD 2.3 billion of total business-segment adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2027. Offsetting those strengths, FY2026 Aviation Leasing guidance was reduced from USD 575 million to USD 475 million, consolidated Q2 adjusted EBITDA declined year over year, and inventory increased materially from year-end. A Hold balances strong aerospace execution and new power-market opportunities against leasing weakness. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$290.00 Mean target$364.00 High · most bullish analyst$600.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $290.0020% Aerospace growth moderates or margins weaken, Aviation Leasing falls below its reduced outlook, inventory continues to rise, or FTAI Power deliveries are delayed. These outcomes would undermine confidence in the USD 2.3 billion 2027 business-segment adjusted EBITDA objective. Base CaseCentral scenario $364.0055% Matches the consensus meanFTAI substantially delivers its USD 1.05 billion FY2026 Aerospace Products adjusted EBITDA guidance while Aviation Leasing reflects the planned asset-light transition and remains near its revised USD 475 million outlook. Growth continues, but execution requirements and elevated inventory constrain conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $600.0025% Aerospace Products sustains rapid growth, FTAI Power converts its USD 1.465 billion customer contract into timely deliveries, and the company approaches its USD 2.3 billion 2027 business-segment adjusted EBITDA objective. Maintenance-network expansion and Strategic Capital provide additional capacity and capital efficiency. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |