Frontdoor Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryPersonal Services Beta (adjusted)1.32 Intrinsic Value $68.87median of 6 methods · middle span $45-$126based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $75.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.2B Enterprise Value $5.7B Shares Outstanding 70.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Frontdoor, Inc. (NASDAQ: FTDR) is the clear market leader in the U.S. home warranty industry, operating major brands such as American Home Shield and 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty. The company is successfully transitioning from a period of flat organic growth to positive momentum, driven by a strategic focus on direct-to-consumer (DTC) customer acquisition, high-margin renewal channels, and expanding non-warranty revenue streams (such as its HVAC upgrade program). Despite macroeconomic headwinds in the real estate sector, Frontdoor's capital-light business model, robust free cash flow generation, and aggressive share buyback program provide strong downside protection and significant earnings leverage. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$91.00 Mean target$98.00 High · most bullish analyst$105.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $91.00 Persistent inflation in contractor labor and parts costs compresses gross margins below 53%. A prolonged freeze in the U.S. housing market severely dampens real estate channel warranty sales, and high customer churn in promotional DTC cohorts offsets first-year member gains, leading to flat or negative revenue growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $98.00 Matches the consensus meanFrontdoor achieves its full-year 2026 guidance of $2.155 billion to $2.195 billion in revenue and $565 million to $580 million in Adjusted EBITDA. Total member count turns positive with ~1% growth, supported by a 5% increase in first-year home warranty members. The company maintains a strong gross margin of 54% to 55% and continues returning capital to shareholders via buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $105.00 Accelerated adoption of the DTC channel and successful scaling of the HVAC upgrade program drive organic revenue growth above 6% CAGR. Synergies from the 2-10 HBW integration materialize faster than expected, expanding operating margins. Continued aggressive share repurchases further boost EPS, driving the stock toward the high-end analyst target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |