Fresenius Medical Care AG ADR Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value $25.94median of 5 methods · middle span $26-$27based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $22.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.8B Enterprise Value $15.9B Shares Outstanding 532.2M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Fresenius Medical Care's second-quarter execution supports continued operational recovery: organic revenue grew 5%, adjusted operating income rose 23% at constant currency, adjusted margin reached 11.7%, operating cash flow increased, and the 5008X rollout advanced rapidly. The offset is a restrained FY 2026 outlook of broadly flat revenue and operating-income growth within a positive-to-negative mid-single-digit range, alongside negative U.S. same-market treatment growth, China tender pressure, currency headwinds and substantial special items. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.38 Mean target$25.79 High · most bullish analyst$38.24 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $17.3818% The downside case is driven by operating-income growth falling below the negative end of guidance, net leverage moving above the target corridor, or delayed 5008X execution. Persistent negative U.S. treatment growth, China pricing and tender pressure, foreign-exchange effects, regulatory changes or further material special items could prevent the expected profitability recovery. Base CaseCentral scenario $25.7957% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes the company delivers within its FY 2026 outlook while preserving the margin and cash-flow improvements demonstrated in Q2. FME25+ savings and rate improvements should partly offset weak U.S. treatment growth, currency pressure, China procurement headwinds and transformation costs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $38.2425% The upside case requires sustained Care Delivery margin gains, successful completion of the 5008X rollout, realization of the planned FME25+ savings and growing adoption of high-volume hemodiafiltration. The latest company evidence supports this pathway: adjusted Care Delivery operating income increased strongly, the new system had reached 227 U.S. clinics, and recently published evidence strengthened the clinical case for HVHDF. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |