Freeport-McMoRan Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryCopper Beta (adjusted)1.26 Intrinsic Value $89.15median of 6 methods · middle span $43-$172based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $69.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $99.5B Enterprise Value $104.8B Shares Outstanding 1.4B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Freeport offers substantial operating leverage to copper through the scheduled Grasberg recovery and scalable Americas leach initiatives, but the investment case remains unusually dependent on safe execution of the post-incident Grasberg ramp-up. Second-quarter execution was on schedule, while published milestones call for approximately 65% of normal PTFI production capacity in second-half 2026 and near-full capacity only by year-end 2027. A Hold stance balances this recovery potential against operational, cost, permitting and project-inflation risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$71.73 High · most bullish analyst$82.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $30.0024% The Grasberg ramp-up falls behind schedule, consolidated unit costs exceed guidance, or another operational interruption reduces copper and gold volumes. Capital escalation or permitting delays at Bagdad, El Abra or the Grasberg license extension would further defer growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $71.7359% Matches the consensus meanGrasberg progresses broadly in line with the published schedule, 2026 copper sales remain near the 3.1-billion-pound outlook, and leach initiatives reach approximately 300 million pounds of annualized incremental production by year-end 2026. Higher restoration costs and normal project uncertainty limit near-term upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $82.0017% Grasberg reaches or exceeds its scheduled capacity milestones without another material disruption, leach initiatives attain the 2026 target and continue toward the approximately 800-million-pound 2030 opportunity, and disciplined project execution converts Freeport's brownfield pipeline into sustained copper growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |