Freedom Holding Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Freedom Holding Corp

FRHCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryFinancial Conglomerates

Beta (adjusted)0.78

Intrinsic Value $55.91median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $173.41Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 68% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-68%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $11.1B

Enterprise Value $12B

Shares Outstanding 61.3M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend3 Sep 2002

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Freedom Holding is sustaining rapid customer and revenue growth, extending its integrated financial-services ecosystem and entering Türkiye, but the latest quarter also showed lower net income, sharply higher expenses and credit-loss provisions, increasing delinquent loans, substantial counterparty concentration and unresolved SEC enforcement risk. These offsetting factors support a Hold pending clearer evidence that growth converts into durable earnings without disproportionate credit, regulatory or concentration costs.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

An SEC enforcement action, further deterioration in loan performance, continued dependence on concentrated institutional counterparties, or sustained losses in the Insurance and Other segments overwhelms customer and revenue growth. Capital-intensive ecosystem expansion then produces weaker returns and greater funding pressure.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Customer and revenue growth continue, supported by brokerage, banking and ecosystem expansion, but elevated payroll, technology, funding, insurance and expansion costs constrain consolidated earnings. Türkiye adds strategic optionality but takes time to contribute materially.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Revenue and customer growth remain strong, brokerage and banking momentum persists, the Türkiye banking and brokerage platform scales successfully, and recent subsidiary credit-rating upgrades improve funding access. This outcome requires materially better profit conversion from the insurance and Other segments while preserving credit quality.

Key Investment Merits

Quarterly total revenue, net increased 40% year over year to $732.5 million.
Total customers increased to 8.743 million from 8.1 million during the quarter.
S&P Global Ratings raised long-term issuer credit ratings to BB- from B+ for four key financial subsidiaries, with stable outlooks.
Freedom completed the acquisition of approximately 99.32% of Turkish Bank and subsequently obtained an operating license for its Turkish brokerage subsidiary.

Key Investment Risks

Quarterly net income declined 15% year over year even as total revenue increased 40%, indicating weak incremental profit conversion.
The company and its controlling shareholder, chairman and CEO received SEC Wells Notices in March 2026; the investigation could lead to a civil enforcement action or settlement.
One market-maker customer generated 57% of quarterly fee and commission income, while three customers represented approximately $2.98 billion of margin-lending and related receivables.
Loans at least 90 days past due increased to $66.444 million from $48.909 million over the quarter, and the provision for expected credit losses increased materially year over year.
The Insurance and Other segments recorded quarterly net losses of $19.196 million and $86.475 million, respectively.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.