Franklin Resources Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management Beta (adjusted)1.36 Intrinsic Value $23.20median of 6 methods · middle span $19-$40based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $32.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16.5B Enterprise Value $15.2B Shares Outstanding 516.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend29 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The operating trajectory is constructive: July 2026 AUM reached $1,797.6 billion, July long-term net inflows were $6 billion, and fiscal-third-quarter long-term net inflows were $18.4 billion across every asset class and geography. Alternatives, private-market fundraising and the institutional pipeline provide additional growth avenues. The balance is less decisive because much of the third-quarter AUM increase came from market appreciation, Western Asset still experienced outflows, cash-management flows were negative, and the quarter included a significant regulatory-settlement charge. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$35.27 High · most bullish analyst$41.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.0016% A market reversal reduces AUM and management-fee capacity while organic flows turn nonpositive. The downside would become more credible if AUM fell below the March 2026 level, alternative AUM surrendered its latest quarterly gain, or outflows at Western Asset broadened to the wider platform. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.2756% Matches the consensus meanAUM remains near its recent record while monthly flows stay around breakeven or modestly positive. Alternatives and the institutional pipeline support growth, but market sensitivity, Western Asset outflows and cash-management volatility temper the benefit. Bull CaseUpside scenario $41.0028% Sustained positive organic flows, conversion of the $28.6 billion institutional won-but-unfunded pipeline, and continued expansion in alternatives could lift fee-bearing AUM beyond the July record. This outcome is supported by positive third-quarter flows across all asset classes and geographies, $33.0 billion of fiscal-year-to-date private-markets fundraising, and alternative AUM rising to $295.4 billion in July. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |