Fractyl Health Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Fractyl Health Inc

GUTSNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Care Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.89

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $0.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $71.6M

Enterprise Value $55.1M

Shares Outstanding 159.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Fractyl Health is a clinical-stage metabolic therapeutics company uniquely positioned to address the massive post-GLP-1 weight maintenance market. Its lead procedural therapy, Revita, targets duodenal mucosal resurfacing to prevent weight regain after GLP-1 discontinuation, addressing a critical gap where up to two-thirds of patients regain lost weight. Additionally, its Rejuva gene therapy platform (RJVA-001) offers a potential one-time, pancreas-targeted alternative to chronic pharmacotherapy. With pivotal data expected in early Q4 2026 and a cash runway extending into early 2027, the company presents a high-upside opportunity ahead of major clinical catalysts.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$2.00

Mean target$5.03

High · most bullish analyst$8.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$2.0020%

REMAIN-1 Pivotal Cohort fails to show a statistically significant difference in weight maintenance compared to sham, or safety concerns emerge. RJVA-001 trial is delayed or shows poor tolerability. The company's tight cash runway forces a highly dilutive capital raise under unfavorable market conditions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$5.4050%

Revita meets its primary endpoints in the REMAIN-1 Pivotal Cohort, showing statistically significant weight maintenance compared to sham. The company submits its De Novo application to the FDA by late Q4 2026. RJVA-001 successfully initiates dosing with acceptable safety profiles, keeping the platform on track.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$8.0030%

Revita's REMAIN-1 Pivotal Cohort demonstrates exceptional efficacy in post-GLP-1 weight maintenance, leading to rapid FDA De Novo approval and widespread commercial adoption. Simultaneously, RJVA-001 Phase 1/2 trial shows strong safety and robust nutrient-responsive GLP-1 expression, validating the Rejuva platform and attracting a major biopharma partnership.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Uniquely targets the massive and underserved post-GLP-1 weight maintenance market.
Dual-platform approach combining a late-stage medical device (Revita) with a cutting-edge gene therapy platform (Rejuva).
Strong clinical validation from REVEAL-1 and REMAIN-1 Midpoint cohorts showing durable weight maintenance.
Clear near-term regulatory and clinical catalysts in H2 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Tight liquidity with cash runway extending only into early 2027, necessitating additional funding post-data.
Clinical trial risk associated with the first-in-human AAV gene therapy in type 2 diabetes.
Commercial execution and market access risks for a novel procedural therapy in obesity.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the REMAIN-1 Pivotal Cohort to meet its primary efficacy endpoints.
Severe adverse events or safety signals in the RJVA-001 Phase 1/2 trial.
Inability to secure non-dilutive financing or strategic partnerships if clinical data is delayed.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.