Fox Factory Holding Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomotive Parts & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.23 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $18.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $772.1M Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 42M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Fox Factory Holding Corp. (FOXF) represents a compelling self-help turnaround story. Despite near-term cyclical headwinds in its bike segment (Specialty Sports Group) and unmitigated tariff pressures, the company is aggressively executing a multi-phase profit optimization strategy. Partnering with activist investor Engine Capital, FOXF has refreshed its board and established a Transformation Oversight Committee to drive operational excellence. Reaffirmed FY2026 guidance implies a ~200 basis point adjusted EBITDA margin expansion on declining revenues, proving that management's cost-realignment actions are structurally improving the business's earnings power. As end-markets normalize, this enhanced operating leverage will drive significant bottom-line upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$21.67 High · most bullish analyst$26.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $14.0015% Prolonged destocking in the bike segment, deeper OEM disruptions in powered vehicles, and failure to realize incremental Phase 2 cost savings compress margins further. High leverage limits financial flexibility, and the stock remains depressed near its 52-week lows. Base CaseCentral scenario $21.6760% Matches the consensus meanFOXF successfully delivers on its $50 million cost savings target for FY2026, offsetting persistent tariff impacts and flat-to-declining top-line growth. Adjusted EBITDA lands near the midpoint of guidance (~$188.5 million), representing a 13.7% margin. The stock rerates moderately as operational execution under the Transformation Oversight Committee builds investor confidence. Bull CaseUpside scenario $26.0025% Rapid recovery in the Specialty Sports Group (SSG) bike segment combined with faster-than-expected execution of Phase 2 cost savings drives FY2026 adjusted EBITDA to the high end of guidance ($203 million). Successful integration of high-margin product lines and swift debt paydown from divestiture proceeds lead to multiple expansion as the market rewards the company's improved margin profile. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |