Fox Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Fox Corp

FOXANASDAQ

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryBroadcasting

Beta (adjusted)0.69

Intrinsic Value $45.26median of 6 methods · middle span $42-$104based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $61.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $25.8B

Enterprise Value $28.2B

Shares Outstanding 439M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

FOX enters fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: fiscal-2026 revenue increased 5% and adjusted EBITDA increased 8%, supported by live sports, news, Tubi-led digital growth and the FOX One launch. The proposed approximately $22 billion Roku acquisition could materially expand FOX into connected television and streaming, but it introduces regulatory, financing, leverage and integration uncertainty.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$52.60

Mean target$73.39

High · most bullish analyst$112.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$52.6021%

The Roku transaction is delayed, blocked or burdened by costly conditions; closing leverage exceeds management's approximately 2.8x expectation; or synergies fall below approximately $400 million. At the same time, subscriber declines overwhelm distribution pricing and difficult comparisons against major sports events weaken advertising and earnings growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$73.3956%

Matches the consensus mean

FOX sustains positive revenue and adjusted-EBITDA growth as Tubi, FOX One, sports and news offset continuing linear subscriber pressure. The Roku transaction progresses but creates near-term financing and integration uncertainty, with results broadly consistent with management's approximately 2.8x closing leverage and $400 million synergy framework.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$112.0023%

The Roku acquisition closes within the announced first-half-2027 window, FOX realizes approximately $400 million of run-rate cost synergies, and Roku's reach across more than 100 million streaming households accelerates Tubi, connected-TV advertising and subscription growth. Continued pricing power in distribution and disciplined capital returns reinforce the stronger growth mix.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal-2026 revenue reached $17.126 billion, increasing 5%, while adjusted EBITDA reached $3.906 billion, increasing 8%.
Digital growth led by Tubi contributed to advertising growth, while FOX successfully launched its FOX One direct-to-consumer service.
The Roku combination would add a connected-TV platform reaching more than 100 million global streaming households and carries an announced approximately $400 million run-rate cost-synergy opportunity.

Key Investment Risks

Net subscriber declines continue to pressure the linear distribution base even though contractual price increases supported fiscal-2026 cable distribution growth.
The Roku acquisition remains subject to shareholder, regulatory and other closing conditions and creates execution and integration risk.
FOX expects to use new debt and cash for the Roku consideration and projects approximately 2.8x pro forma net leverage at closing.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.