Four Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc ADR Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryEducation Services Beta (adjusted)0.42 Intrinsic Value $14.60median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 28 Feb 2026 Market Price $9.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 61% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+61%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.5M Enterprise Value $13.7M Shares Outstanding 2.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date15 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Aug 2024 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Four Seasons Education has successfully transitioned its business model toward enrichment educational products, services, and tourism-related offerings following regulatory shifts in China's tutoring sector. The company achieved a strong financial recovery in the fiscal year ended February 28, 2026, returning to profitability with a net income of RMB 29.1 million on consolidated revenues of RMB 254.4 million. However, the company's heavy reliance on the Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structure (contributing 99.9% of net revenues) and persistent regulatory uncertainties in the Chinese education and tourism sectors warrant a cautious approach, making a Hold recommendation appropriate at this valuation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.5020% Renewed regulatory crackdowns on enrichment learning or travel restrictions impact the tourism business. The enforceability of the VIE structure is legally challenged by PRC authorities, leading to a potential inability to consolidate financial results. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.5060% The company continues to prudently expand its enrichment learning programs and scale its tourism services in lockstep with market demand. Revenue remains stable or grows moderately, and the company maintains positive net income while managing its operating expenses effectively. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0030% The company accelerates the monetization of its Wuyuan study camps and expands its travel agency services rapidly. Strong demand for enrichment learning leads to higher-than-expected margins, driving significant earnings growth and multiple expansion. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |