Four Corners Property Trust Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Four Corners Property Trust Inc

FCPTNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Retail

Beta (adjusted)0.87

Intrinsic Value $22.88median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $21.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.4B

Enterprise Value $3.6B

Shares Outstanding 112M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Four Corners Property Trust (NYSE: FCPT) represents a highly resilient, income-generating net-lease REIT with a strong focus on high-quality restaurant and retail properties. FCPT's investment thesis is anchored by its exceptionally high portfolio occupancy (99.6%), robust rent collection (99.7%), and conservative leverage profile (5.0x Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA). Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by elevated interest rates, FCPT has successfully expanded its investment aperture into auto service and medical retail while maintaining a disciplined capital allocation strategy. The company's predictable cash flows, supported by long-term triple-net leases with built-in rent escalators, provide strong dividend safety and steady growth potential.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$26.00

Mean target$28.22

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$26.0015%

A severe consumer spending slowdown pressures restaurant tenant sales, leading to a decline in rent coverage ratios and localized tenant defaults. Refinancing of maturing debt at higher interest rates compresses net operating margins and limits AFFO growth. Capital deployment slows due to intense competition for high-quality net-lease assets, causing the stock to trade down toward its 52-week low.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$28.2260%

Matches the consensus mean

FCPT continues its steady execution, maintaining occupancy above 99% and rent collection near 100%. Acquisitions continue at a moderate pace of $200M to $300M annually with blended cash cap rates around 6.8% to 7.3%. Leverage remains stable around 5.0x to 5.3x Net Debt to EBITDA. The dividend continues to grow at a low-single-digit CAGR, supported by a conservative payout ratio, leading to steady capital appreciation in line with the consensus target.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$30.0025%

Accelerated acquisition volume at highly attractive cap rates (above 7.0%) combined with successful tenant diversification into non-restaurant retail (e.g., auto service, medical). Rapid lease-up of transitioning properties (such as the Bahama Breeze locations) at premium rents drives AFFO growth above consensus expectations. A decline in benchmark interest rates lowers refinancing costs and expands investment spreads, driving the stock toward the high end of analyst targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

High-quality, recession-resistant tenant base concentrated in national, investment-grade restaurant and retail brands.
Exceptional portfolio metrics with 99.6% occupancy and 99.7% base rent collection.
Strong balance sheet with low leverage (5.0x Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA) and no near-term debt maturities due to fully hedged term loans.
Consistent dividend growth history with a well-covered payout ratio.

Key Investment Risks

High tenant concentration, particularly with Darden Restaurants, which exposes FCPT to brand-specific operational risks.
Macroeconomic headwinds, including elevated interest rates, which increase borrowing costs and compress investment spreads.
Potential consumer spending slowdown impacting casual dining and retail tenant profitability.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material drop in portfolio occupancy below 97.0% due to widespread tenant bankruptcies.
Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA leverage rising and remaining consistently above 6.0x.
A significant reduction or suspension of the quarterly dividend payout.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.