Fortive Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Fortive Corp

FTVNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryScientific & Technical Instruments

Beta (adjusted)1.03

Intrinsic Value $45.42median of 6 methods · middle span $38-$53based on filings through 3 Apr 2026

Market Price $55.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $16.9B

Enterprise Value $20B

Shares Outstanding 302.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend22 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Fortive's post-Ralliant portfolio is showing stronger execution: Q2 2026 core revenue grew 6.7%, adjusted EBITDA increased 12%, adjusted EPS increased 28.5%, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow reached $1.044 billion. Management raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.95-$3.05, while the approximately 50% recurring-revenue mix, sizeable remaining performance obligations, and Fortive Business System support durability. The offset is that AHS adjusted EBITDA margin declined year over year, debt and interest expense remain material, and trade-policy, currency, cybersecurity, and acquisition-execution risks persist.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$51.00

Mean target$64.31

High · most bullish analyst$72.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$51.0020%

Core revenue growth falls below the medium-term framework as industrial, healthcare, government, or international demand weakens; AHS margin remains below its Q2 2026 baseline; and tariffs, product mix, wage costs, or higher interest expense absorb productivity gains. Aggressive repurchases or acquisitions could then reduce balance-sheet flexibility without delivering sufficient earnings growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$64.3156%

Matches the consensus mean

Fortive delivers FY2026 adjusted EPS within the $2.95-$3.05 guidance range, core growth normalizes toward the 3%-4% medium-term framework after a strong first half, and productivity and organizational streamlining produce gradual margin expansion. Cash generation remains robust, but AHS margin improvement and capital-allocation returns require continued verification.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$72.0024%

Core growth remains at or above the upper end of the medium-term framework, IOS sustains strong volume and pricing, AHS converts growth investments into margin improvement, and Fortive delivers annual adjusted EBITDA margin expansion while deploying free cash flow through disciplined repurchases and bolt-on acquisitions. The approximately 50% recurring-revenue profile and $824.8 million of remaining performance obligations provide additional visibility.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 execution was strong, with 6.7% core revenue growth, 12.0% adjusted EBITDA growth, 28.5% adjusted EPS growth, and a raised full-year EPS outlook.
Cash generation and share-count reduction are meaningful: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $1.044 billion, and Fortive reported approximately $2 billion of repurchases over four quarters.
The focused portfolio has approximately 50% recurring revenue, while $824.8 million of remaining performance obligations, primarily tied to software and service arrangements, adds revenue visibility.

Key Investment Risks

AHS adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.1% in Q2 2026, down 80 basis points year over year despite 5.3% core growth, highlighting mix and cost pressure.
Long-term debt was $3.509 billion versus $374.2 million of cash at July 3, 2026, and management reported higher year-over-year net interest expense because of a higher weighted-average borrowing rate.
Fortive identifies material exposure to volatile trade policy and tariffs, international and currency conditions, cybersecurity, regulated healthcare markets, supply-chain constraints, acquisition execution, and separation-related indemnities.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.