Fortinet, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Fortinet, Inc.

FTNTNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)1.04

Intrinsic Value $129.30median of 6 methods · middle span $69-$161based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $178.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $131.1B

Enterprise Value $128.7B

Shares Outstanding 731.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Fortinet entered the second half of 2026 with strong momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 26%, billings 33%, product revenue 52%, and non-GAAP operating margin reached 38%. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to approximately 19% growth. The integrated FortiOS platform, purpose-built FortiASIC architecture, emerging SASE Firewall positioning, and expansion into AI-enabled security operations support a favorable operating outlook.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets37 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$86.00

Mean target$160.86

High · most bullish analyst$220.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$86.0020%

Large-deal timing weakens, macroeconomic or pricing pressure slows demand, and competitive or product-security issues reduce pipeline conversion. Revenue or operating margin falls below management's guidance floor, invalidating the assumption that current product momentum translates into durable growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$160.8655%

Matches the consensus mean

Fortinet executes near its FY2026 outlook of $8.020-$8.180 billion in revenue, $9.350-$9.550 billion in billings, and a 35%-37% non-GAAP operating margin.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$220.0025%

Product acceleration persists as customers adopt Fortinet's converged firewall, SD-WAN, and SASE capabilities, while FortiSOC, FortiEndpoint, and AI-security partnerships broaden platform demand. Billings remain above guidance and operating leverage exceeds the full-year margin range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 26% year over year to $2.05 billion while billings grew 33% to $2.37 billion.
Product revenue grew 52% year over year, indicating strong appliance and platform demand during the quarter.
Fortinet reported a 38% non-GAAP operating margin and $966 million of free cash flow in the second quarter.
The company is expanding its platform through SASE Firewall, FortiSOC, FortiEndpoint, Intel collaboration on SP6, and AI-security partnerships.

Key Investment Risks

Large strategic deals can lengthen sales cycles and create variability in billings and revenue conversion.
Competition, pricing pressure, and rapid technological change—including advances in artificial intelligence—could weaken demand or product differentiation.
Actual or perceived vulnerabilities affecting Fortinet, its products, or its supply chain could damage customer confidence and sales.
Macroeconomic weakness, geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, and constrained technology spending could reduce customer demand.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.