FormFactor Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

FormFactor Inc

FORMNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductor Equipment & Materials

Beta (adjusted)1.17

Intrinsic Value $84.39median of 6 methods · middle span $47-$218based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $148.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $11.6B

Enterprise Value $11.5B

Shares Outstanding 80.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

FormFactor entered September 2026 with strong operating momentum: fiscal Q2 revenue reached $258.2 million, increased 31.9% year over year, and was accompanied by record revenue, gross profit and EPS. Management guided Q3 revenue to $260-$280 million and cited particular strength in Foundry & Logic and Systems. HBM and co-packaged-optics demand, customer recognition, expanded Taiwan manufacturing support and silicon-photonics capabilities strengthen the strategic case. However, the issuer also identifies semiconductor cyclicality, customer-specific demand, export controls, tariffs, trade barriers and execution dependencies as material uncertainties. The base case has no valuation anchor or share-price target; a Hold stance is therefore more defensible than an unanchored Buy or Sell.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$64.00

Mean target$138.63

High · most bullish analyst$175.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$64.0020%

Semiconductor demand volatility, customer-specific order changes, trade restrictions or partnership and acquisition execution issues push revenue or gross margin below the low end of Q3 guidance. This would weaken evidence that the Q2 profitability step-up is sustainable.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$138.6355%

Matches the consensus mean

FormFactor delivers approximately within its Q3 guidance ranges as DRAM, Foundry & Logic and Systems demand remains constructive. Margin and EPS gains persist but normalize after the exceptional Q2 step-up. The expanded Taiwan operating framework and Keystone Photonics capabilities contribute gradually.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$175.0025%

Demand for HBM, AI processors, advanced packaging and co-packaged optics remains strong; the Taiwan partnership scales probe-card assembly, testing, repair and regional support; and Q3 results exceed the upper end of the issued revenue and profitability ranges. Sustained customer recognition and successful silicon-photonics execution reinforce competitive positioning.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal Q2 2026 produced record revenue, gross profit and EPS; revenue rose 31.9% year over year, and management guided to another potential record-revenue quarter.
HBM and co-packaged optics drove sequential increases in Probe Cards and Systems, respectively, positioning FormFactor at the intersection of AI compute and advanced packaging.
FormFactor received global number-one rankings in Test Subsystems and Focused Suppliers of Chip Making Equipment, while its expanded Keystone Microtech partnership adds Taiwan manufacturing scale and regional support.

Key Investment Risks

Results remain exposed to semiconductor cyclicality, customer-specific demand, export controls, tariffs, trade barriers and reliance on customers, suppliers and other third parties.
The expected benefits of the Keystone Microtech partnership depend on manufacturing scalability, customer acceptance, supply-chain execution and effective coordination between the parties.
The Keystone Photonics acquisition increases exposure to the timing and adoption of silicon-photonics and co-packaged-optics production, and its strategic benefits require successful technology and organizational integration.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.