Ford Motor Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ford Motor

FNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers

Beta (adjusted)1.55

Intrinsic Value $12.22median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $12.27Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $48.9B

Shares Outstanding 4B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ford's second-quarter execution improved, with adjusted EBIT rising to $2.5 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $2.1 billion and higher full-year guidance. The balanced view reflects meaningful offsets: Ford Model e remained substantially loss-making, aluminum-supply disruption continued to constrain production, and July U.S. sales weakened.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$11.00

Mean target$15.78

High · most bullish analyst$20.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$11.0025%

Supply constraints, weaker vehicle demand or renewed warranty pressure push adjusted EBIT and free cash flow below guidance, while Model e losses exceed the approximately $4 billion outlook. Persistent weakness in U.S. electrified-vehicle sales would increase transition risk.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$15.7856%

Matches the consensus mean

Ford delivers within its raised 2026 adjusted EBIT and free-cash-flow ranges while Model e remains loss-making near the company's outlook. Profitable truck, commercial and service operations offset EV-transition and supply-chain costs.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$20.0019%

Ford delivers at or above the upper ends of its raised adjusted EBIT and free-cash-flow ranges, sustains Ford Blue and Ford Pro profitability, and continues narrowing Model e losses despite supply constraints. Better quality and warranty performance would further strengthen this outcome.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Ford raised 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0-$11.0 billion and adjusted free-cash-flow guidance to $6.0-$7.0 billion after its second-quarter results.
Second-quarter adjusted EBIT increased year over year to $2.5 billion despite lower revenue and supply disruption.
Ford reported more than $43 billion of total liquidity, providing resilience while it funds product, software and EV initiatives.

Key Investment Risks

Ford Model e recorded a $919 million second-quarter EBIT loss and retained an approximately $4 billion full-year loss outlook.
The aluminum-supply disruption reduced production and created temporary costs, leaving execution dependent on supply recovery.
July 2026 U.S. sales fell 10% year over year, while electrified-vehicle sales fell 40.3%, indicating demand and portfolio-transition pressure.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.