Flutter Entertainment Plc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryCasinos & Gaming Beta (adjusted)1.05 Intrinsic Value $229.86median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $76.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 201% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+201%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.3B Enterprise Value $23.7B Shares Outstanding 173M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend5 Sep 2019 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Flutter retains leading US sportsbook and iGaming positions and a diversified international portfolio, but the risk-reward is balanced by sharply lower Q2 adjusted EBITDA, increased customer investment, a reduced FY2026 outlook and leverage of 4.3x. The updated cost-transformation program and continued international growth provide credible recovery levers, while execution, tax, regulatory and competitive pressures limit confidence in the timing and scale of that recovery. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$140.07 High · most bullish analyst$360.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.0025% US sportsbook investment fails to restore durable momentum, competitive generosity remains elevated, international tax and regulatory pressures intensify, and cost savings arrive later than planned. Revenue or adjusted EBITDA falls below the updated guidance floor, leaving leverage at or above 4.3x and weakening cash-generation capacity. Base CaseCentral scenario $140.0758% Matches the consensus meanFlutter delivers within its updated FY2026 revenue and adjusted-EBITDA ranges, with near-term US investment and tax pressure partly offset by international growth and operating efficiencies. Profitability improves gradually rather than immediately, and leverage begins declining from 4.3x. Bull CaseUpside scenario $360.0017% US sportsbook investment restores customer momentum and supports share gains into 2027, iGaming remains resilient, international growth continues, and the additional $500 million gross savings program materially improves cash generation. Successful scaling of prediction-market capabilities provides incremental revenue while leverage declines toward the medium-term target range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |