Fluor Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Fluor Corp

FLRNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryEngineering & Construction

Beta (adjusted)1.17

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $49.33Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $6.6B

Enterprise Value $4.7B

Shares Outstanding 140M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Feb 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Fluor Corporation is undergoing a successful strategic transition, significantly reducing its risk profile by shifting its backlog toward reimbursable contracts (82% of backlog as of Q1 2026). The company has unlocked massive liquidity through the monetization of its NuScale Power investment, generating $2.4 billion in proceeds since September 2025. This cash windfall is funding an aggressive $1.4 billion share repurchase program in 2026, which will drive substantial EPS growth. Despite a mixed Q1 2026 with project-specific charges, the underlying business model is highly robust, supported by a strong $25.7 billion backlog and secular tailwinds in advanced technologies, mining, and energy transition projects.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$47.50

Mean target$60.69

High · most bullish analyst$71.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$47.5020%

Further execution delays or cost overruns on remaining legacy fixed-price projects or complex reimbursable projects. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or a broader macroeconomic slowdown delay new awards in Energy Solutions. Labor shortages and materials inflation compress margins across major infrastructure projects.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$60.6950%

Matches the consensus mean

Fluor successfully executes its transition with reimbursable contracts protecting downside risk. Adjusted EBITDA lands within the narrowed guidance range of $525 million to $560 million. The company executes the planned $1.4 billion in share repurchases, and legacy fixed-price backlog continues to wind down without further major write-downs.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$71.0030%

Accelerated conversion of the $25.7 billion backlog combined with higher-than-expected margins on new reimbursable awards. The company completes its $1.4 billion share buyback ahead of schedule, significantly reducing outstanding share count. Secular tailwinds in semiconductor fabs, life sciences, and mining drive a surge in high-margin Urban Solutions awards.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

De-risked business model with 82% of the $25.7 billion backlog structured as reimbursable contracts, protecting the company from fixed-price cost overruns.
Massive liquidity and capital return potential, fueled by $2.4 billion in proceeds from the NuScale Power divestiture, supporting a $1.4 billion share buyback target in 2026.
Strong exposure to secular growth trends, including advanced manufacturing, energy transition, mining, and national security programs.

Key Investment Risks

Execution risk remains on the remaining $169 million legacy fixed-price backlog and complex infrastructure projects.
Labor constraints and persistent materials inflation could pressure project margins and execution schedules.
Cyclicality of capital spending in the energy and mining sectors could lead to delays or cancellations of new awards.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Significant cost overruns or litigation charges exceeding $100 million on legacy or active projects.
A material reduction or suspension of the planned $1.4 billion share repurchase program.
A sharp decline in new awards leading to a consecutive quarterly drop in total backlog below $23 billion.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.