Flowserve Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $66.73median of 6 methods · middle span $48-$103based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $73.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.3B Enterprise Value $10.7B Shares Outstanding 127.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Flowserve enters the second half of 2026 with strong demand indicators and improving execution but mixed near-term growth. Second-quarter bookings rose 25.5%, backlog increased 16.9%, adjusted operating margin expanded to 15.3%, and management raised the lower end of adjusted EPS guidance. These positives are offset by negative organic sales growth, reduced full-year sales expectations because of Middle East conflict, and execution risk from integrating acquired operations. The evidence supports a balanced Hold view pending proof that backlog converts into profitable organic growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$70.00 Mean target$89.10 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $70.0019% Middle East disruption persists or worsens, backlog conversion is delayed, and acquisition integration absorbs management attention or fails to deliver expected operating benefits. Under this case, organic sales remain below guidance and adjusted EPS falls below the company's $4.05 guidance floor. Base CaseCentral scenario $89.1056% Matches the consensus meanFlowserve broadly delivers its $4.05-$4.20 full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance despite approximately 1% organic sales contraction, converts part of its $3.336 billion backlog, and continues gradual margin expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.0025% Power, nuclear and energy-security investment sustains elevated bookings; the aftermarket franchise and Trillium installed base add recurring demand; and continued execution of the Flowserve Business System moves adjusted operating margin toward the approximately 20% 2030 objective. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |