Floor & Decor Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryHome Improvement Retail Beta (adjusted)1.38 Intrinsic Value $61.77median of 6 methods · middle span $43-$89based on filings through 25 Jun 2026 Market Price $46.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.9B Enterprise Value $4.8B Shares Outstanding 108.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) is a category specialist in the hard-surface flooring market that continues to gain market share over the long term. However, the company is currently facing significant cyclical headwinds due to a depressed housing market, high mortgage rates, and a pullback in big-ticket discretionary consumer spending. While the company's long-term expansion target of 500 stores remains intact and unit economics are being improved by lowering new-store capital expenditures, near-term comparable store sales remain negative and earnings are under pressure. A neutral stance is warranted until there is clear evidence of a housing market recovery or a stabilization in comparable store transactions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$38.00 Mean target$58.59 High · most bullish analyst$75.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Mortgage rates remain elevated or rise further, causing a prolonged downturn in the housing market. Comparable store sales decline by more than 4%, leading to severe fixed-cost deleverage. New stores cannibalize existing locations more than anticipated, and competitive pressure from big-box retailers forces aggressive promotional discounting, eroding gross margins. Base CaseCentral scenario The housing market remains soft through 2026, keeping comparable store sales negative to flat. Floor & Decor successfully opens 20 new stores at lower average costs ($7.5M-$8.0M per store) and executes its $400 million share repurchase program to support EPS. Margins remain relatively stable due to disciplined cost management and value merchandising, but overall growth is constrained by macro headwinds. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |