Five9 Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)1.31 Intrinsic Value $46.13median of 6 methods · middle span $18-$81based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $35.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.7B Enterprise Value $3.2B Shares Outstanding 74.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Five9 is successfully navigating its transition into an AI-driven cloud contact center leader. Despite broader software sector headwinds and fears of AI disrupting traditional per-seat licensing, Five9's Q1 2026 results demonstrate robust execution, highlighted by a 68% YoY surge in AI revenues (now representing 13% of subscription sales) and a reversal of its long-term downward trend in dollar-based retention rates. Under new CEO Amit Mathradas, the company is prioritizing investor transparency, expanding its share buyback program, and driving margin expansion. Trading at a significant discount to historical averages and analyst price targets, Five9 offers an attractive risk-reward profile for growth-oriented investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$33.00 High · most bullish analyst$50.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $24.00 Intense competition from Salesforce, Zoom, and pure-play CCaaS leaders like Genesys and NICE pressures pricing. Rapid adoption of generative AI agents accelerates the decline of traditional per-seat licensing, compressing subscription margins. Ongoing shareholder litigation investigations create a persistent overhang on the stock. Base CaseCentral scenario $33.00 Matches the consensus meanFive9 delivers on its FY2026 revenue guidance of $1.254B to $1.266 billion, with revenue growth accelerating in H2 2026. AI revenues grow at the guided 40% rate, and dollar-based retention rates stabilize around 107%. Operating margins continue to improve through cost discipline, and the stock moves toward the consensus analyst target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $50.00 Enterprise AI bookings accelerate faster than expected, driving AI revenues to exceed the guided 40% growth for FY2026. The joint Enterprise CX AI solution with Google Cloud gains rapid market share, leading to significant operating leverage and gross margin expansion. Share buybacks support positive free cash flow per share growth, and the stock multiple rerates toward historical averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |