Five Below Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialty Retail Beta (adjusted)0.98 Intrinsic Value $261.32median of 6 methods · middle span $162-$279based on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $221.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.2B Enterprise Value $11.6B Shares Outstanding 55.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date2 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Five Below entered the pending second-quarter report with strong operating momentum: first-quarter net sales increased 32.5%, comparable sales increased 22.7%, and adjusted diluted EPS reached $2.22. Management consequently raised fiscal 2026 guidance to 6%-8% comparable-sales growth and $8.65-$9.05 of adjusted diluted EPS. The company also crossed 2,000 stores in July, supporting the long-duration expansion case. However, the August 31 share price of $247.71 was close to the reported 52-week high of $263.88, while management's second-quarter comparable-sales guidance of 7%-9% implies substantial normalization from the first quarter. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$220.00 Mean target$269.29 High · most bullish analyst$350.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $220.0022% The bear case is that first-quarter demand represented an unusually strong comparison point and that comparable-sales growth falls below the second-quarter guidance floor. Tariff outcomes less favorable than the assumptions embedded in guidance could compound pressure on merchandise economics, while a share price near its 52-week high increases sensitivity to an earnings or outlook disappointment. Base CaseCentral scenario $269.2958% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes second-quarter comparable sales remain within management's 7%-9% range and fiscal 2026 results remain within the raised guidance of 6%-8% comparable-sales growth and $8.65-$9.05 adjusted diluted EPS. Growth moderates from the exceptional first quarter but remains supported by new stores and the value proposition. Bull CaseUpside scenario $350.0020% The bull case is that coordinated merchandising, marketing, social-media trend identification, and store execution continue producing broad-based traffic and sales gains. Sustained performance above the 7%-9% second-quarter comparable-sales range, combined with continued store expansion beyond the July 2026 milestone of 2,000 locations, would support results above the raised fiscal-year outlook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |