Firy Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryInteractive Media & Services Beta (adjusted)3.41 Intrinsic Value $7.52median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $12.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $202.5M Enterprise Value $167.1M Shares Outstanding 15.7M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Firy Inc. (formerly Skillz Inc.) is undergoing a major corporate transformation, rebranding from a pure-play mobile gaming platform into a diversified holding company spanning real-money gaming (Skillz), AI-powered performance marketing (RZR), and developer backend infrastructure (Beamable). The company's turnaround is supported by strict cost discipline, narrowing losses, and a massive $420 million federal jury verdict in its false advertising lawsuit against Papaya Gaming (with potential total recoveries up to $1.4 billion). While core gaming growth remains modest, the high-growth RZR ad-tech segment provides a highly profitable secondary engine. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.50 Mean target$2.50 High · most bullish analyst$2.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.5020% The Papaya Gaming verdict is overturned on appeal or reduced significantly, and collection proves difficult or delayed. Core Skillz user metrics continue to decline due to reduced marketing spend, and the RZR segment's growth slows down as performance marketing competition intensifies. The company remains unprofitable and continues to burn through its cash reserves. Base CaseCentral scenario $2.5050% Matches the consensus meanFiry successfully stabilizes its core Skillz gaming segment near break-even while RZR continues to grow at a double-digit pace. The Papaya Gaming litigation results in a negotiated settlement or sustained judgment of at least $420 million, which is collected over several years. Operating expenses remain controlled, and the company achieves positive consolidated Adjusted EBITDA by 2028. Bull CaseUpside scenario $2.5030% The federal court enters a final judgment confirming the $420 million actual damages award against Papaya Gaming, potentially adding disgorgement of profits or cost savings up to $1.4 billion. This massive cash windfall completely recapitalizes the company. Simultaneously, the RZR segment continues its triple-digit growth trajectory, and the Beamable integration accelerates developer onboarding, driving total revenue past management's target of doubling by 2028. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |