Firstsun Capital Bancorp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.48 Intrinsic Value $28.27median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $38.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $803M Shares Outstanding 44M diluted Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary FirstSun Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: FSUN) represents a compelling growth opportunity in the regional banking sector following the successful completion of its transformational merger with First Foundation Inc. on April 1, 2026. This transaction accelerates FirstSun's expansion strategy, creating a premier regional bank with a powerful footprint across dynamic markets in the Southwest, Western US, and Florida. While near-term integration risks and balance sheet repositioning are present, the bank's strong core profitability, robust net interest margin (4.25% in Q1 2026), and solid capital ratios position it well to deliver superior long-term shareholder value. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$45.75 High · most bullish analyst$47.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential integration bottlenecks, higher-than-anticipated credit costs from commercial real estate exposure, or deposit flight in highly competitive markets. If the planned balance sheet repositioning is delayed or more costly than expected, net interest margins could compress, leading to downward revisions in consensus EPS estimates. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes a smooth integration of First Foundation Inc. over the next 12-18 months, with the bank successfully executing its planned balance sheet down-sizing of high-cost funding and non-relationship assets. Net interest margins are expected to remain stable above 4.00%, supported by a relationship-focused commercial lending model. Under this scenario, the bank achieves projected cost synergies and capital accretion, driving the stock toward consensus analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |