FirstService Corp Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Services Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $146.76median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $128.51Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.6B Enterprise Value $6.5B Shares Outstanding 45.8M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary FirstService Corp is North America's largest manager of private residential communities, offering a highly resilient business model with a strong track record of compounding value through organic growth and strategic acquisitions. While the Brands segment faces near-term margin pressures from competitive roofing dynamics and weaker consumer sentiment in home services, the core Residential segment continues to deliver robust organic growth and margin expansion driven by labor efficiencies and AI-driven productivity gains. The stock's recent price consolidation presents a compelling entry point for long-term compounders. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$140.00 Mean target$173.88 High · most bullish analyst$195.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $140.00 Prolonged margin compression in the Brands segment due to intense competition in roofing and further deterioration in consumer discretionary spending affecting home services, offsetting Residential segment gains. Base CaseCentral scenario $173.88 Matches the consensus meanSteady mid-single-digit consolidated revenue growth with stable margins. Residential segment continues to expand market share in a fragmented HOA market, while Brands segment margins stabilize in the second half of 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario $195.00 Accelerated margin expansion in the Residential segment through successful AI and offshoring initiatives, combined with a rapid rebound in the Brands segment driven by storm-related restoration demand and accretive roofing acquisitions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |