Firstenergy Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Firstenergy Corp

FENYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryElectric Utilities

Beta (adjusted)0.64

Intrinsic Value $43.76median of 6 methods · middle span $36-$52based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $43.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $25.1B

Enterprise Value $51.4B

Shares Outstanding 580M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

FirstEnergy offers a visible regulated-investment runway, with a $36 billion 2026-2030 Energize365 plan, approximately 10% projected annual rate-base growth and management targeting Core EPS growth near the top of a 6%-8% range. First-half 2026 Core EPS was $1.22, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $2.62-$2.82. Contracted data-center demand reached 6.4 GW, adding potential upside beyond the base capital plan. However, the August 28 closing price of $45.88 already reflects meaningful execution progress, while the enlarged capital program, regulatory recovery requirements, financing conditions and legacy investigation-related costs constrain the risk-adjusted upside.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$48.00

Mean target$53.33

High · most bullish analyst$56.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$48.0024%

Regulatory delays, weaker cost recovery, capital-program execution pressure or higher financing and operating costs push Core EPS below guidance or force management to lower its long-term growth outlook. Data-center projects may also develop more slowly than the contracted-demand headline implies.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$53.3358%

Matches the consensus mean

FirstEnergy delivers within 2026 guidance and progresses the $36 billion capital program, but the current share price already discounts much of the planned rate-base and earnings growth. The base target is therefore set close to the August 28 issuer-hosted closing price.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$56.0018%

Successful deployment of Energize365, constructive regulatory outcomes and conversion of expanding data-center demand into incremental regulated investment sustain growth near the top of management's 6%-8% Core EPS range. Continued dividend growth and evidence that demand-driven projects expand the investment runway support a higher utility valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The $36 billion 2026-2030 Energize365 program is expected to produce approximately 10% compound annual rate-base growth.
Management reaffirmed 2026 Core EPS guidance of $2.62-$2.82 and long-term growth near the top of its 6%-8% range.
Contracted data-center demand reached 6.4 GW, while total contracted and pipeline demand increased 30% from the first quarter.
The indicated 2026 dividend is $1.86 per share, 4.5% above the prior quarterly rate and aligned with a 60%-70% Core EPS payout target.

Key Investment Risks

The enlarged capital plan depends on timely regulatory approvals, prudent cost recovery and continued access to capital on acceptable terms.
FirstEnergy continues to identify investigation-related costs, litigation, regulatory proceedings and compliance matters among material uncertainties.
Demand-led upside depends on data-center and West Virginia projects progressing from contracted or proposed status into approved, recoverable investment.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.