First Solar Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

First Solar Inc

FSLRNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.51

Intrinsic Value $510.58median of 6 methods · middle span $258-$1,230based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $172.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 197% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+197%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $18.5B

Enterprise Value $16.8B

Shares Outstanding 107.7M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

First Solar combines substantial contracted demand, differentiated thin-film technology, a supply chain independent of Chinese crystalline silicon, strong first-half profitability, and expanding United States capacity. The company reaffirmed its 2026 guidance after the second quarter, while the August 2026 Section 232 action may improve the competitive environment for domestic solar manufacturing. The balanced rating reflects material dependence on policy and trade frameworks, customer-contract performance, and successful manufacturing ramps.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets30 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$150.00

Mean target$270.97

High · most bullish analyst$402.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$150.0019%

The bear case assumes customer terminations or delivery disruption reduce backlog conversion, manufacturing ramps create greater startup or underutilization costs, and changes to tariffs, tax credits, or other policy support weaken domestic economics. Technology-execution or intellectual-property setbacks could further reduce differentiation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$270.9758%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes delivery broadly within the company's unchanged 2026 ranges, continued backlog conversion through 2030, and progress toward approximately 17 GW of United States nameplate capacity in 2027. It also assumes that startup and underutilization costs remain manageable and that current United States policy support broadly persists.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$402.0023%

The bull case assumes First Solar meets or exceeds its unchanged 2026 guidance, converts its 45.1 GW backlog without material cancellations, executes the South Carolina ramp, and benefits from sustained domestic-manufacturing incentives and trade enforcement. Continued thin-film and perovskite development, supply-chain differentiation, and intellectual-property enforcement would reinforce competitive durability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Contracted sales backlog totaled 45.1 GW at June 30, 2026 and extended through 2030, providing substantial delivery visibility.
First Solar's vertically integrated thin-film modules do not depend on Chinese crystalline-silicon supply chains, supporting differentiation as United States trade enforcement strengthens.
First-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA reached $1.163 billion, and management reaffirmed full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.6-$2.8 billion.
The company is scaling toward approximately 17 GW of United States nameplate capacity in 2027 while continuing investment in thin-film, CuRe, and perovskite technologies.

Key Investment Risks

Guidance depends on assumptions concerning tariffs, export controls, trade remedies, Section 45X credits, freight costs, permitting, and the broader United States policy environment.
Second-quarter sales declined partly because of lower revenue associated with customer-contract terminations, demonstrating that contracted backlog is not risk-free.
New-facility construction, qualification, and production ramps expose the company to startup costs, underutilization, delays, and manufacturing interruptions.
Intellectual-property litigation and rapid competing technology development could impose costs or weaken expected differentiation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.