First Northwest Bancorp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.74 Intrinsic Value $7.34median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $95.1M Enterprise Value $336.3M Shares Outstanding 8.9M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend9 May 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary First Northwest Bancorp (FNWB) is navigating a complex operational turnaround under its updated leadership team. While the bank has successfully expanded its Net Interest Margin (NIM) for six consecutive quarters to 3.03% as of Q1 2026 and continues to reduce its reliance on high-cost brokered deposits, headline profitability remains severely depressed. The bank reported near-breakeven net income of $6,000 for Q1 2026, heavily impacted by elevated noninterest expenses and compressed noninterest income. Although credit quality and capital adequacy remain solid with a total risk-based capital ratio of 13.5%, the slow pace of earnings recovery and high efficiency ratio justify a Hold recommendation until sustainable operating leverage is demonstrated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$13.00 Mean target$13.25 High · most bullish analyst$13.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent deposit competition prevents further funding cost reductions, compressing NIM back below 2.85%. Credit quality deteriorates in the commercial real estate or SBA portfolios, requiring substantial provisions that push the bank back into net losses. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank continues its gradual balance sheet repositioning, replacing expensive wholesale funding with core customer deposits. NIM stabilizes around 3.00% to 3.05%. Operating expenses decline moderately as branch consolidation benefits materialize in late 2026, leading to a slow recovery in EPS toward $0.15–$0.20 by fiscal year-end. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case hinges on the normalization of elevated legal and professional fees (which ran at $2.0 million in Q1 2026 due to the 3|5|2 Capital lawsuit), the accretion of the AOCI mark, and the execution of a disciplined balance sheet transformation under new CEO Curt Queyrouze. Strip out the temporary legal spend, and the bank's core franchise—which holds a dominant 41% deposit share in its home county and has achieved six consecutive quarters of net interest margin expansion—exhibits strong underlying profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |