First Northern Community Bancorp Dossier - Source-backed chat

First Northern Community Bancorp

FNRNNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.35

Intrinsic Value $9.68median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $17.64Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $289.2M

Enterprise Value $175.8M

Shares Outstanding 16.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

First Northern Community Bancorp (NASDAQ: FNRN) represents a compelling community banking investment following its successful uplisting to the Nasdaq Capital Market on April 24, 2026. The bank has demonstrated robust financial performance, highlighted by a 60.9% year-over-year increase in Q1 2026 net income to $5.9 million and net interest margin expansion to 3.83%. Backed by disciplined cost of funds (90 basis points) and strong capital ratios, FNRN is well-positioned to capture market share in its Northern California footprint while returning capital to shareholders via its newly initiated 6% stock repurchase program.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$14.0020%

An economic slowdown in Northern California leads to rising credit provisions in commercial and agricultural loan portfolios. Increased competition for deposits forces a rise in the cost of funds, compressing NIM below 3.50%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$19.5050%

NIM stabilizes around 3.80% with steady loan growth in commercial portfolios. The bank successfully executes its 6% share repurchase program, supporting EPS growth and maintaining a return on equity above 11%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$22.5030%

NIM continues to expand beyond 3.90% driven by sustained high interest rates and low deposit beta. The Nasdaq uplisting significantly increases institutional ownership and trading liquidity, driving a valuation multiple re-rating toward regional peers.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Strong profitability with Q1 2026 net income up 60.9% YoY.
Successful uplisting to the Nasdaq Capital Market, enhancing investor visibility.
Disciplined deposit franchise keeping cost of funds at 90 basis points.
Active capital return through a 5% stock dividend and a new 6% share buyback program.

Key Investment Risks

Geographic concentration in Northern California counties, exposing the bank to regional economic shifts.
Potential compression of Net Interest Margin if deposit competition intensifies.
Credit risk associated with commercial and agricultural loan portfolios in a high-rate environment.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net Interest Margin falling below 3.50%.
A material spike in non-performing assets exceeding 1.5% of total loans.
Failure to execute the stock repurchase program due to capital constraints.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.