First Majestic Silver Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

First Majestic Silver Corp

AGNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustrySilver

Beta (adjusted)1.79

Intrinsic Value $18.10median of 6 methods · middle span $8-$33based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $17.66Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.7B

Enterprise Value $8.2B

Shares Outstanding 479.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

First Majestic Silver Corp. is positioned as one of the purest primary silver producers globally, generating approximately 66% of its revenue from silver. The company is undergoing a significant operational transformation, driven by the successful integration of the Los Gatos mine and major throughput expansions at Santa Elena and Los Gatos scheduled for completion in H2 2026. This operational momentum is supported by a robust balance sheet with over $1.1 billion in treasury, record-low carbon intensity, and a newly doubled dividend policy targeting 2% of top-line revenue. Recent upward revisions to 2026 production guidance reflect strong H1 performance and high-grade exploration intercepts, making it a compelling vehicle for silver-focused precious metals exposure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$22.50

Mean target$24.75

High · most bullish analyst$27.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$22.5020%

Operational delays or technical bottlenecks push the completion of the Santa Elena and Los Gatos expansions into 2027. Inflationary pressures in Mexico, combined with a stronger Mexican Peso, drive AISC above the guided range of $26.15 to $27.91 per AgEq ounce. A sharp correction in silver prices reduces operating margins and limits dividend payouts.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$24.7550%

Matches the consensus mean

The company successfully achieves its updated 2026 production guidance of 14.6 to 15.5 million silver ounces and 128,000 to 135,000 gold ounces. Throughput expansions achieve steady-state targets in late 2026. Newly appointed CFO Neil Beaumont enforces tight capital discipline, aligning the expanded $318M to $344M capital budget with production milestones. Silver prices remain supportive amid persistent global supply deficits.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$27.0030%

Throughput expansions at Santa Elena (to 3,500 tpd) and Los Gatos (to 4,000 tpd) are completed ahead of schedule in H2 2026, driving production to the high end of revised guidance. Sustained high silver prices and successful monetization of non-core assets (such as the San Martin sale for $90 million) further boost free cash flow, leading to higher capital returns under the 2% top-line dividend policy.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Pure-play silver exposure with 66% of revenue generated from silver and 94% from precious metals.
Strong balance sheet with $1.13 billion in treasury and $843 million in working capital as of Q1 2026.
Upwardly revised 2026 production guidance reflecting strong operational performance across Mexican assets.
Vertically integrated minting facility (First Mint) capturing additional margin and retail investment demand.
Industry-leading ESG performance, including record-low carbon intensity and ISS ESG Prime status.

Key Investment Risks

High cost profile with 2026 consolidated AISC guided at $26.15 to $27.91 per payable AgEq ounce.
Geographic concentration with all active producing mines located in Mexico, exposing the company to local regulatory and currency risks.
Execution risk associated with achieving and sustaining expanded throughput rates at Santa Elena and Los Gatos in H2 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve the 3,500 tpd expansion at Santa Elena or the 4,000 tpd expansion at Los Gatos by the end of 2026.
A sustained drop in silver prices below $20 per ounce, severely impacting the economics of high-cost operations.
Significant capital cost overruns on the expanded 2026 capital budget of $318 million to $344 million.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.