First Interstate BancSystem Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $35.77Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.4B Enterprise Value $2.4B Shares Outstanding 97.4M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary First Interstate BancSystem (FIBK) is executing a disciplined balance sheet optimization strategy, shifting away from active M&A to focus on organic growth, branch footprint rationalization, and core profitability. While the bank has achieved eight consecutive quarters of net interest margin (NIM) expansion (reaching 3.43% in Q1 2026) and maintains a robust capital position (CET1 of 14.30%), near-term top-line growth remains constrained by intentional loan runoff and deposit pricing pressures. The stock appears fairly valued at current levels, and further upside is contingent on successful execution of its digital transformation and stabilization of loan balances in the second half of 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$37.50 High · most bullish analyst$41.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $33.00 The bear case is triggered by prolonged loan runoff, persistent deposit competition forcing higher funding costs, and a deterioration in credit quality—particularly within the commercial real estate (CRE) portfolio. Margin compression and elevated credit provisions would weigh heavily on earnings, limiting capital return capacity. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.50 Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes modest loan contraction in Q2 2026 followed by stabilization and low-single-digit growth in the second half of the year. NIM continues to expand sequentially at a moderate pace. Credit quality remains stable with manageable net charge-offs, and the bank continues its steady capital return through dividends and disciplined share repurchases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $41.00 The bull case is driven by faster-than-expected stabilization of loan balances, sequential NIM expansion exceeding expectations due to favorable fixed-asset repricing ($2.6 billion in loans repricing by 2027), and successful cost-saving realizations from branch optimization. Strong capital generation supports accelerated share repurchases under the expanded $300 million program, driving EPS growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |