First Industrial Realty Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Industrial Beta (adjusted)1.02 Intrinsic Value $51.91median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $58.87Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.1B Enterprise Value $10.6B Shares Outstanding 132.7M diluted Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Second-quarter operating execution was constructive: occupancy improved sequentially to 94.9%, commenced-lease cash rents increased 39%, cash same-store NOI grew 6.7%, and management raised the midpoint of 2026 FFO guidance. Leasing of large existing and development properties provides additional support. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$61.00 Mean target$71.94 High · most bullish analyst$86.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $61.0018% Occupancy falls below 94.0%, cash same-store NOI growth drops below 5.25%, or elevated financing and construction costs impair development economics. Slower demand, tenant defaults, delayed lease-up, or higher vacancy could weaken results relative to management's guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $71.9458% Matches the consensus meanOccupancy averages within management's 94.0%-95.0% range and cash same-store NOI growth remains within the 5.25%-6.25% range while development leasing progresses. Bull CaseUpside scenario $86.0024% Occupancy holds at or above the 95.0% upper end of guidance, cash same-store NOI exceeds 6.25%, strong rental-rate gains persist, and recently completed or in-process developments lease on schedule. The 708,000-square-foot Central Pennsylvania lease and full lease-up at First Park New Castle demonstrate the leasing execution that could support this outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |