First Horizon Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

First Horizon Corp

FHNNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.74

Intrinsic Value $20.10median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $23.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $10.9B

Enterprise Value $12.3B

Shares Outstanding 475.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

First Horizon entered the second half of 2026 with improving profitability and asset quality: second-quarter diluted EPS was $0.54, net interest margin was 3.49%, ROTCE was 15.21%, and the nonperforming-loan ratio declined to 0.81%. Capital remains adequate, with a 10.46% CET1 ratio and a company-run severe-stress minimum of 9.3%. The offset is limited valuation headroom from the issuer-reported $24.52 share price, alongside rate sensitivity, a 41% uninsured-deposit share, commercial-credit exposure, and rising operating expenses. These factors support a Hold rather than an aggressive Buy.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$25.00

Mean target$28.11

High · most bullish analyst$31.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$25.0020%

Rate cuts compress net interest income, commercial-credit migration worsens, and higher personnel and technology spending limits operating leverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$28.1150%

Matches the consensus mean

Margin remains near the mid-3% range, loan growth is moderate, and credit costs normalize without a sharp deterioration.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$31.0030%

Sustained commercial-loan growth, stable-to-rising margin, continued credit resolution, and ongoing repurchases drive stronger per-share earnings. A 15% to 20% re-rating above the base case would be plausible if quarterly ROTCE remains near 15% and the nonperforming-loan ratio stays below 1%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-half 2026 net income available to common shareholders increased 16% year over year, while second-quarter diluted EPS rose to $0.54 from $0.45.
Asset quality improved through June 2026: nonperforming loans declined by $73 million from year-end, and the nonperforming-loan ratio fell to 0.81%.
Capital resilience is supported by a 10.46% reported CET1 ratio and a 9.3% minimum CET1 ratio in the company's severe-stress scenario.

Key Investment Risks

The June 2026 static-balance-sheet sensitivity analysis estimated a 6.7% decline in projected 12-month net interest income under a 200-basis-point rate decline.
Funding and credit concentration remain relevant: 41% of deposits were uninsured, brokered deposits were $7.8 billion, and commercial real-estate loans totaled $13.6 billion.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.