First Hawaiian INC Dossier - Source-backed chat

First Hawaiian INC

FHBNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.82

Intrinsic Value $23.99median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $24.90Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $3B

Shares Outstanding 121.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHI/FHB) represents a stable, well-capitalized regional banking franchise with a dominant market share in Hawaii. The bank started 2026 with a solid first quarter, beating EPS expectations due to disciplined expense management and excellent credit quality. However, net interest margin (NIM) compression remains a headwind due to previous interest rate cuts and competitive deposit pricing. While the bank's conservative loan-to-deposit ratio and strong capital position support its consistent dividend yield, near-term earnings growth is projected to be modest (around 3-5%). Consequently, the stock is fairly valued at current levels, making it a reliable income generator but offering limited near-term capital appreciation upside.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$28.00

Mean target$30.78

High · most bullish analyst$34.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Stubborn inflation or unexpected economic softening in Hawaii dampens loan demand and increases credit provisions. Intense deposit competition prevents the bank from lowering deposit costs, leading to NIM compression below 3.15%. Digital transition costs or inflationary pressures push operating expenses above the $520 million guidance. Nonperforming loans rise, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, requiring higher credit loss provisions and weighing on profitability.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The Hawaii economy remains resilient with low unemployment, supporting stable loan demand. First Hawaiian successfully manages its deposit beta down to the 30%-35% range, offsetting some NIM pressure. Loan growth tracks the guided 3%-4% range, driven by CRE and C&I lending. Noninterest expenses are contained near the $520 million target, and credit quality remains excellent with historically low nonperforming assets. The bank continues to return capital through its $0.26 quarterly dividend and selective share repurchases under its $250 million authorization.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant market share and deep-rooted customer relationships in the geographically isolated Hawaii banking market.
Excellent credit quality with nonperforming assets at just 0.30% of total loans and leases as of Q1 2026.
Strong capital position and conservative loan-to-deposit ratio (69.8% at end of 2025), supporting a reliable dividend yield.
Active capital return program, highlighted by a new $250 million share repurchase authorization approved in January 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Geographical concentration in Hawaii, making the bank highly vulnerable to local economic shocks, tourism downturns, or natural disasters.
Sustained net interest margin (NIM) pressure from competitive deposit pricing and the repricing of rate-sensitive liabilities.
Muted near-term earnings growth, with consensus estimates projecting modest single-digit EPS expansion for 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sharp increase in nonperforming assets (NPAs) exceeding 0.50% of total loans, indicating systemic credit stress.
Net interest margin (NIM) falling below 3.10%, severely impacting net interest income and profitability.
A significant downturn in Hawaii's tourism sector or overall economy, leading to negative loan growth.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.