First Capital Inc Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $62.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $207.4M Enterprise Value $185.7M Shares Outstanding 3.3M diluted Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary First Capital, Inc. (NASDAQ: FCAP) is a highly stable, well-managed bank holding company for First Harrison Bank, operating in Indiana and Kentucky. The company has demonstrated exceptional net interest margin (NIM) expansion, rising to 3.81% in Q1 2026 from 3.34% in Q1 2025, driven by higher yields on interest-earning assets and disciplined funding cost management. With record annual earnings of $16.4 million ($4.89 diluted EPS) in 2025 and continued momentum in Q1 2026 ($1.30 diluted EPS), the bank is well-positioned to deliver strong shareholder returns. Its conservative credit culture, low nonperforming loans (0.66% of total loans), and solid capital position make it an attractive defensive play in the regional banking sector. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $52.0010% A localized economic slowdown in Indiana and Kentucky leads to rising credit defaults, forcing higher provisions for credit losses. Funding costs rise faster than asset yields due to intense deposit competition, compressing NIM back toward 3.20%. Realized losses on available-for-sale securities sales drag down noninterest income. Base CaseCentral scenario $68.0060% NIM stabilizes in the 3.70% to 3.85% range. The bank maintains its disciplined underwriting standards, keeping nonperforming assets controlled. Moderate loan growth of 4-6% and stable noninterest expenses support a steady return on average assets (ROAA) above 1.30% and return on average equity (ROAE) above 12.00%. The bank continues its consistent quarterly dividend payments of $0.31 per share. Bull CaseUpside scenario $75.0030% NIM continues to expand toward 4.00% as high-yield commercial real estate and multifamily loans offset minor funding cost pressures. Operational efficiency initiatives, including call center upgrades and digital banking enhancements, drive the efficiency ratio below 55%. Loan demand in Indiana and Kentucky remains robust, leading to double-digit loan growth without compromising credit quality. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |