First Busey Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

First Busey Corp

BUSENASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.82

Intrinsic Value $28.73median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $29.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.4B

Enterprise Value $1.9B

Shares Outstanding 91.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

First Busey Corporation (BUSE) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a high-performing regional bank holding company. The bank's core strengths lie in its robust net interest margin expansion, disciplined expense management, and a highly differentiated wealth management division that provides a stable stream of noninterest fee income. BUSE's strong capital position, combined with its active share repurchase program and attractive dividend yield, offers solid downside protection and consistent shareholder returns.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$31.00

Mean target$33.29

High · most bullish analyst$35.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$31.0015%

The bear case is characterized by persistent inflationary pressures forcing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, leading to severe deposit competition and compression of the net interest margin. Furthermore, a broader economic slowdown in the Midwest could trigger credit quality deterioration, particularly in commercial real estate, requiring significantly higher provisions for credit losses and stalling loan growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$33.2960%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes steady organic loan and deposit growth across BUSE's core Midwest and expansion footprints. Net interest margin remains stable near current elevated levels of 3.70%-3.80% as deposit betas normalize. Wealth Management assets under care continue to grow at a moderate single-digit pace, and credit quality remains highly manageable with nonperforming assets well below industry averages. Share repurchases and dividends continue to support EPS growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$35.0025%

The bull case is driven by faster-than-expected integration and synergy realization from the CrossFirst Bankshares acquisition, leading to accelerated loan growth in high-growth markets like Dallas-Fort Worth. Additionally, a stable or declining interest rate environment could lower deposit funding costs faster than asset yields, further expanding the net interest margin. Continued strong inflows into the Wealth Management segment would drive fee income to record levels.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion, reaching 3.77% in Q1 2026 due to effective asset-liability management.
Differentiated Wealth Management division with $15.65 billion in assets under care, providing high-margin, recurring fee income.
Robust capital position and active capital return, including a 4% year-over-year dividend increase and an expanded share repurchase program.

Key Investment Risks

Intense competition for deposits leading to higher funding costs and potential margin compression.
Exposure to commercial real estate and potential credit quality deterioration in a high-interest-rate environment.
Integration risks associated with recent acquisitions, including CrossFirst Bankshares.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Net interest margin falling below 3.50% due to rapid deposit cost increases.
A significant spike in nonperforming assets or credit provisions exceeding historical averages.
Failure to achieve projected cost and revenue synergies from the CrossFirst acquisition.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.