First Bancorp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $61.57Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.5B Enterprise Value $2.1B Shares Outstanding 41.4M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary First Bancorp (NC) represents a high-quality regional community bank operating in the economically resilient Carolinas. The bank has demonstrated robust financial performance, characterized by expanding net interest margins, stable credit quality, and disciplined expense controls. With a strong capital position (CET1 ratio of 14.10% as of late 2025) and proactive balance sheet management—such as securities loss-earnback transactions to reinvest in higher-yielding assets—First Bancorp is well-positioned to deliver consistent shareholder value. Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop for regional banks, its deep local roots and high-touch customer service model provide a competitive advantage over larger national peers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$65.00 Mean target$69.40 High · most bullish analyst$72.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $65.0025% A 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment intensifies deposit competition, forcing the bank to raise deposit rates and compress net interest margins. A broader economic slowdown in the Southeast leads to rising nonperforming assets and elevated net charge-offs, requiring substantial provisions for credit losses that depress earnings. Base CaseCentral scenario $69.4050% Matches the consensus meanFirst Bancorp continues to deliver steady financial results with moderate loan and deposit growth. Net interest margins stabilize as deposit competition eases. The bank maintains its disciplined expense management and consistent dividend payouts, supported by solid earnings. Credit quality remains stable with manageable charge-offs in line with historical averages. Bull CaseUpside scenario $72.0025% Accelerated repricing of low-interest loans and securities into higher-yielding assets drives net interest income significantly above consensus. Strong economic growth in North and South Carolina fuels loan demand, while credit quality remains pristine, leading to negative provisions or reversals. The bank successfully leverages its nationwide SBA lending network to generate high-margin non-interest income. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |