FinWise Bancorp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value $11.70median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $11.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $155.3M Enterprise Value $66.1M Shares Outstanding 13.7M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary FinWise Bancorp (FINW) represents a highly profitable, technology-driven Bank-as-a-Service (BaaS) operator trading at a compelling valuation. By partnering with leading fintech platforms, FinWise achieves a net interest margin (12.90% in Q1 2026) and loan origination scale ($1.75B in Q1 2026) that far outpace traditional regional banking peers. While elevated credit provisions and SBA charge-offs have temporarily weighed on near-term earnings, the rapid expansion of its Credit Enhanced Lending portfolio (fully protected from credit losses by partner cash reserves) and the launch of its Payments 2.0 initiatives provide a clear runway for high-margin, capital-efficient growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$19.00 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $13.0015% Persistent macroeconomic headwinds lead to higher-than-expected charge-offs in the non-credit-enhanced traditional portfolio. Regulatory scrutiny on BaaS partnerships slows down new program onboarding, compressing loan origination volumes and squeezing margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $19.0060% Matches the consensus meanFinWise maintains its baseline loan origination run rate of $1.4B per quarter with 5% annual growth. Credit-enhanced balances grow at the guided $8M to $10M monthly pace, and the efficiency ratio improves as high-yield interest revenues are realized, offsetting moderate legacy SBA charge-offs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $22.0025% Fintech partner pipeline scales faster than expected, driving monthly credit-enhanced loan growth above $12M. Net interest margins remain elevated near 13% as deposit costs decline, while SBA credit quality stabilizes rapidly, leading to significant earnings beats. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |